Weekly Signal Digest — September 12, 2026
Top wheat yield signals across Saskatchewan and Alberta, ranked by signal strength and confidence. Confidence measures how many of five independent indicators agree — yield anomaly, yield trend, satellite NDVI, weather, and soil moisture. It is capped at 80% on purpose.
▼ Bearish Signals
No bearish region met the 60% confidence threshold this week. Three regions are below their 10-year wheat average, but current satellite, weather, and soil conditions disagree with the yield history — so the model is not confident the weakness persists.
| SAR 70 — Alberta | −16.6% | 50% agreement |
| SAR 3 — Saskatchewan | −13.3% | 40% agreement |
| SAR 17 — Saskatchewan | −12.0% | 40% agreement |
▲ Bullish Signals
| REGION | ANOMALY | TREND | CONF |
|---|
| SAR 12 — SK | +42.4% STRONG | Improving +2.1%/yr | 80% |
| SAR 5 — SK | +38.9% STRONG | Improving +2.6%/yr | 80% |
| SAR 10 — SK | +26.9% STRONG | Improving +3.6%/yr | 80% |
| SAR 30 — AB | +25.8% STRONG | Stable (+0.3%/yr) | 80% |
| SAR 20 — AB | +29.2% STRONG | Stable (+1.6%/yr) | 70% |
| SAR 13 — SK | +28.0% STRONG | Stable (+0.8%/yr) | 70% |
| SAR 6 — SK | +23.6% MODERATE | Improving +2.6%/yr | 80% |
| SAR 15 — SK | +22.8% MODERATE | Improving +2.8%/yr | 80% |
| SAR 11 — SK | +22.6% MODERATE | Improving +2.7%/yr | 80% |
| SAR 40 — AB | +21.8% MODERATE | Stable (−0.4%/yr) | 80% |
Signal Narratives
SAR 12 — Saskatchewan STRONG
SAR 12 appears to be showing a strong positive signal. Yield performance appears well above the historical average (+42.4%). The multi-year trend appears to be improving. Weather conditions suggest a meaningful tailwind this season. Seasonally, the timing suggests elevated seasonal risk and crop conditions appear favourable. Commodity prices appear strong — a likely tailwind for revenue. Gross crop revenue is estimated at $423 per acre — 8.3% of median land value, before input costs. Overall outlook suggests a strong bullish signal with relatively high confidence (80/100).
SAR 5 — Saskatchewan STRONG
SAR 5 appears to be showing a strong positive signal. Yield performance appears well above the historical average (+38.9%). The multi-year trend appears to be improving. Weather conditions suggest a meaningful tailwind this season. Seasonally, the timing suggests elevated seasonal risk. Commodity prices appear strong — a likely tailwind for revenue. Gross crop revenue is estimated at $570 per acre — 13.9% of median land value, before input costs. Overall outlook suggests a strong bullish signal with relatively high confidence (80/100).
SAR 10 — Saskatchewan STRONG
SAR 10 appears to be showing a strong positive signal. Yield performance appears well above the historical average (+26.9%). The multi-year trend appears to be improving. Weather conditions suggest a meaningful tailwind this season. Seasonally, the timing suggests elevated seasonal risk. Commodity prices appear strong — a likely tailwind for revenue. Gross crop revenue is estimated at $556 per acre — 14.5% of median land value, before input costs. Overall outlook suggests a strong bullish signal with relatively high confidence (80/100).
SAR 30 — Alberta STRONG
SAR 30 appears to be showing a strong positive signal. Yield performance appears well above the historical average (+25.8%). The multi-year trend appears flat. Weather conditions suggest a meaningful tailwind this season. Seasonally, the timing suggests elevated seasonal risk and crop conditions appear favourable. Commodity prices appear strong — a likely tailwind for revenue. Gross crop revenue is estimated at $549 per acre — 12.6% of median land value, before input costs. Overall outlook suggests a strong bullish signal with relatively high confidence (80/100).
SAR 20 — Alberta STRONG
SAR 20 appears to be showing a strong positive signal. Yield performance appears well above the historical average (+29.2%). The multi-year trend appears flat. Weather conditions suggest a meaningful tailwind this season. Seasonally, the timing suggests elevated seasonal risk. Commodity prices appear strong — a likely tailwind for revenue. Gross crop revenue is estimated at $500 per acre — 10.9% of median land value, before input costs. Overall outlook suggests a strong bullish signal with moderate confidence (70/100).